TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHODS

Different techniques, as shown in Figure-1 have been developed over the years to deal with forecasting methodologies. The forecaster has to judiciously select a technique or a combination of techniques depending upon the methodology and end objective in view.

The common techniques could be summarised as follows:

Technology forecasting methods and Techniques1

We shall endeavour to describe briefly some of the commonly used techniques; however, you may refer to literature to get a grasp of the other higher level forecasting techniques. But before doing so, we list in Table -1 the Technological Forecasting (TF) methods used for each of the four main activities in the business environment.

Business Activity and TF Techniques1

Use of a combination of methods will generally be more reliable than dependence on a single parameter or single forecasting method. Also, it may be useful to have the user of a technology, generator of a technology, manufacturers, suppliers and designers involved in an integrated exercise to shape the combined perspective into a forecast.

SOME COMMONLY PRACTISED TECHNLOGY FORCASTING TECHNIQES EXPLAINED AS BELOW :

I) BRAINSTORMING

II) DELPHI TECHNIQUE

III) TREND EXTRAPOLATION

IV) TECHNOLOGY MONITORING

V) GROWTH CURVES

VI) RELEVANCE TREES

VII) MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

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